The crisis in the traditional logistics model and the transition to autonomy
Strikes, protests, demonstrations… the transport sector is up in arms over the energy crisis we are going through. But apart from the problem of fuel costs, the world of logistics has been facing big challenges and opportunities for years, especially in freight transport, circumstances that look set to grow in the future.
What trends have shaped the sector?
First, demand for freight transport has kept rising in recent years. Because of COVID there has been a massive adoption of e-commerce, which is being sustained over time, so the potential of e-commerce will keep growing. This means that before long we will have to improve the efficiency of our logistics networks considerably in order to meet all the demand.
Second, we are currently living through an energy crisis caused by the war in Ukraine, which only illustrates the difficulties logistics companies face as a result of the fluctuations that occur fairly often in the energy market, bringing sudden cost increases and difficulty maintaining activity, dragging most sectors along with it.
And finally, it should be mentioned that in many cases working conditions have worsened. For example, as a result of COVID we have seen major hold-ups, quarantines, blockades and border closures, making the working conditions of many drivers even harder. It is a hard job, very demanding physically and mentally, that requires many drivers to spend days and weeks away from home.
In a way, all this is affecting the lower interest that the traditional trucker profession arouses in new generations, and a supply crisis is expected in the future because of the shortage of drivers. In addition, many drivers are leaving the sector in search of better working conditions, greater safety and higher wages.
In Spain, according to DGT figures, there are about 253,000 drivers with a category C and C+E licence. Of these, around 32,000 are aged between 60 and 64, 40,000 between 55 and 59, and 42,000 between 50 and 54. In other words, about 45% of these drivers are aged between 50 and 64. This article discusses those figures and analyses the causes of the progressive ageing of the profession.
In 2022, according to Transport Intelligence, Europe needed more than 400,000 truck drivers and Spain more than 15,000.
We are facing a global crisis that has already been experienced for several years in several regions of the world and that is expected to get worse in the future, so we need to start working on new approaches now.
Is autonomy the future of logistics?
We at the association have talked a great deal about the opportunities that autonomous driving offers to improve road safety, optimise driving to reduce energy consumption or improve the planning of transport flows.
Faced with the structural challenges and opportunities ahead for the sector in this new economic context, we will have to look for new approaches that respond to those challenges. To achieve this, we will need to rethink the transport model we have used for several decades, accepting that we will have to make far-reaching changes that will completely transform the sector.
Projects that move towards an autonomous future.
Several regions around the world are already experimenting with this type of technology.
For example, in 2018 Volvo Trucks signed an agreement with Brønnøy Kalk AS, supplying 6 autonomous trucks to carry limestone from an open-pit mine in Norway to a seaport over 5 kilometres.
An example of how other types of transport solutions are also betting on automating the whole process as far as possible, this time on the other side of the planet: in 2018 the company Rio Tinto put an autonomous train into operation, able to carry 28,000 tonnes of iron ore, travelling more than 280 kilometres from the Tom Price mines to the port of Cape Lambert in Australia, with benefits in reliability, safety and efficiency similar to those mentioned in the Norwegian case.
Returning to the subject at hand, as regards road transport, various projects have been carried out in Germany to test the reliability and safety of , that is, the movement of truck convoys in autonomous mode, reaching extremely interesting conclusions such as more efficient use of space on motorways, a 3 to 4% reduction in fuel used and the estimate that around 40% of the kilometres of the European logistics network could be used by this type of technology.
Solutions of this kind are also being tested in Japan. The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry and the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism have set out to promote platooning projects in order to overcome the shortage and ageing of truck drivers and improve fuel efficiency.
One example is the tests that both ministries are carrying out on the Shin Tomei expressway with trucks that, as you can see in the video, travel in formation at 80 km per hour and only 9 metres behind the truck in front, where only the first vehicle is crewed and the rest travel without a driver.
For its part, TuSimple, in the United States, had been running tests on motorways with for some time. One of the most talked-about tests was the transport of a load of watermelons from Nogales (Arizona) to Dallas in June 2021.
The truck operated autonomously for about 80% of the journey under human supervision, over more than 1,500 km, achieving a 42% reduction in time, from the 24 hours and 6 minutes a human driver would take to the 14 hours and 6 minutes it took its autonomous system.
It must be said, though, that the autonomy system used by the company is not 100% autonomous, so it would not be applicable today, but it does show the potential of these technologies for saving time and costs.
Update: in December 2023 TuSimple announced it was closing its operations in the United States. This was reported by, among others, TechCrunch and Trucking Info.
There was also progress in China. Plus, based in California, showed a video in 2021 of a Level 4 autonomous truck driving on the Wufengshan expressway, in the Yangtze delta, the country's largest economic centre. According to the company itself, it was the first to do so.
PlusAI video: Level 4 driverless truck on a motorway (in English)
Advantages of autonomous driving for logistics.
As we can guess, investment in the sector keeps rising and more and more companies are interested in this kind of solution given the great advantages the autonomous transport model offers.
First, by working with a fleet of autonomous vehicles, transport flows can be managed more efficiently because pick-up and delivery times can be predicted more reliably. Because they drive without a driver, these trucks can work 24 hours a day with no rest stops, eliminating the cost of idle vehicles and greatly reducing delivery times.
A much more sustainable transport system is also expected, as a result of the gradual electrification of fleets and improvements in driving, by minimising sudden acceleration and braking, keeping safe distances, and so on.
Second, as a result of less aggressive driving, the risk of accidents will fall considerably. This reduction will be greater still once situations of driver fatigue or loss of attention are eliminated. There will thus be a lower cost in terms of lives and serious injuries, while losses from damage to vehicles or to the cargo itself will also fall.
And what will happen to the drivers?
Yes, there are great advantages in promoting autonomous driving in the logistics sector, but one of the big concerns is what will happen to drivers over the coming years.
And today the news seems positive.
While on long-distance routes automation looks like a reality we will have before long, with intermediate steps such as the driver assistance systems we can already see today, urban and last-mile transport still has a long way to go, and both models will coexist for several years.
Even so, all is not lost for the human factor in long-distance transport today. Companies such as the Swedish Einride are betting that truck drivers will become remote pilots, supervising what the trucks do while they are driving, as an additional element of control and safety.
Einride video: the first remote operator completes her training (in English)
There are also those who argue for keeping a driver in the truck at least until fully autonomous mobility is achieved, in order to deal with possible problems. One example is Ariel Wolf, a representative of the autonomous vehicle industry, who told a US House of Representatives panel that long-haul autonomous trucks will allow human drivers to "spend more nights in their own beds instead of in a truck's sleeper berth". Source: Reuters.
Still, it seems the area with the greatest potential will be short-distance transport. Thanks to the boom we are seeing in e-commerce, and to new door-to-door delivery proposals, a large number of jobs linked to parcels and logistics can be created, since many activities require workers to be present and in many others the human touch adds distinctive value.
However, we must not forget that the trend is leading us towards a connected and automated future. That is why it is essential that we start planning how to gradually convert the sector while there is still time, developing training measures to redeploy many employees and not leaving them to their fate by ignoring the problem until it is too late.
The goal is clear: to ensure that as few people as possible lose out in an unstoppable process that will undoubtedly bring significant benefits to society, the environment and the economy.
A process that has already begun and on which many regions of the world are betting decisively.
Regulation, the big brake.
As we have seen, many companies and institutions are interested in driving the sector forward, investing enormous amounts of resources to reach Level 5 autonomous driving: Waymo, Cruise, Volkswagen, BMW, Daimler, Baidu, Toyota, Argo, Aurora, Tesla and a long etcetera. But all this will be of no use if we do not have the legislation needed to take advantage of the full potential these technologies offer.
Today we are in the testing phase, learning how to make the whole model safer and discovering ways to exploit all these proposals commercially. Fortunately there are already places where these technologies could start to be applied and thus help fund research and growth; but legislation is the big obstacle in many of them.
That is why authorities need to be able to facilitate the creation of , so that they can learn alongside the ecosystem all the implications this process of technological disruption will have, to make the development and adoption of this new mobility model as easy as possible.
At AEVAC we have carried out a study titled "Roadmap for the and legislation of autonomous vehicles in Spain", in which we offer:
- an overview of the current state of projects worldwide,
- A compilation of the main standards that will apply to the sector,
- A summary of the legislation (mainly the legislation applicable in Spain),
- And also a set of conclusions and recommendations validated by national and international experts.
- Finally, we also include a technology roadmap intended to give a view of the steps that must be taken to achieve connected autonomous mobility, of particular interest for defining projects under European Union grants over the coming years.
If you are interested, you can download here a copy of the study summary.
Share this article
- Share on LinkedIn (opens in a new window)
- Share on Facebook (opens in a new window)
- Share on X (opens in a new window)
The social network links load nothing from them until you click. They open in another window.